Forecasting Technology Substitution of Disruptive Technology through Transformed Survival Analysis

The failure of preparation for forecasting along with excessive focus on incumbent technology may lead to the failure in coping with in emerging technology, resulting in being late entrant in the market eventually. Thus, this paper suggests a framework for monitoring and forecasting technology substitution on the basis of patent information. It transformed survival analysis and estimated by utilizing Bass diffusion model in that patent or technology has no accurate date or year of death (failure). In order to illustrate the proposed approach, mobile communication technology is selected, resulting in forecasting both the emergence time and development duration of next generation technology. The result of forecasting technology substitution will be applied developing technology and patent roadmap more quantitatively. Keywords-Technology substitution, Survival analysis, Bass diffusion model, Forecasting, Technology and Patent roadmap